Using public information for stock research

by Kris Tuttle on April 7, 2010

Twenty years ago the first place to start research a stock was to get a copy of the S&P “tearsheet” and contact the company to get sent a pile of printed materials to go over.

These days everyone starts online because it’s fast and easy. However for public information to be enlightening one must make a bit more of an effort to gather from the most linked and trafficked sources of information.

While some focus too hard on cultivating non-public sources of information a skilled use of public information is critical for getting the basics done before making a greater investment in developing or purchasing proprietary information.

Learning these will make you more effective in generating the initial research story around a company and/or industry.

The Company Website: Of course this is where lots of people get many of the basics out of the way. This is a good place to review the company positioning statement (About) and then look through the management team, board of directors, products and also recent news releases.

The next level is to review past events if the company has them online. Prior presentations from investor conferences are one of the most valuable to look at but not every company includes them. It’s often worth looking at the last quarterly report and listening to that call to get a sense of how management talks about their business. The Q&A is often the most useful part.

Lastly before leaving the company website if there is a developer or partner program available and I plan to follow a company I join that. The more you can get into the community around the company the more public sources of information you will get.

Google: Googling the company name won’t get you much farther than the website but adding terms like “[product name] reviews” or “alternatives” or “problems” might turn up articles that are more obscure and full of information. Being creative with Google is a good way to unearth less commonly-known information about the company. The same searching technique can be used on sites like Twitter.

Google Finance: Along with Yahoo Finance and other sites this is the perfect place to get stock history, basic financial information, upcoming investor events, news releases and some sense of the comparable companies in the group. Although Google Finance is not great with links (for some reason) sometimes links to good articles are found here.

Market Organizations: Although many of these links can be found at Google Finance the SEC in the US provides online filings and more detailed information about shares traded, shares sold short and so on may be found here and on sites like the NASDAQ.

Seeking Alpha: Although this is a retail-oriented investor site there are sometimes useful posts here. In addition they also publish transcripts of prior company quarterly earnings calls that can be faster than listening to them. It’s best to go to the site and enter in the ticker to search.

Local Newspapers: In many cases local newspapers (online or offline) spill much more ink on local companies. So look at where the company is based and search those news sites in particular to get more detailed stories. They often have more content on the management than national sources.

Industry Research: Most industry research (like from Gartner Group or Forrester) is not available to the public. However there is a useful and simple trick here. First go to those sites and search for the research. If there is a good research report go back and Google the title. Often one of the companies in the report will pay the research firm so that they can put it up on their website and make it available for free to people that register. For example a good report from Forrester covering online video platforms was useful for a recent report on Brightcove and available for free at one of the other online video platform sites.

Job Listings: Many analysts routinely use job listings for clues about what companies are working on. The same can be done using the Google patent filings search. Job listings help identify company hiring plans and by doing a search on the company products one can see if end-user companies are specifying these products in their own hiring plans. We have found SimplyHired to be one of the best and easiest to search.

Glassdoor: This is a service that starts to move into a more proprietary space but it is still a very open and public way to get some interesting information on a company. By signing up and contributing information to Glassdoor about companies you have worked for and/or interviewed with, you can then get information that others have shared. Level of content varies a great deal but there are sometimes some good nuggets in there.

Retail Brokers: If you have a brokerage account some of them furnish some decent Wall Street research at no charge. For example E*Trade provides Credit Suisse reports. Many others do something similar. It’s the fastest way to peel the onion of consensus estimates.

This provides a reasonable starting point for any company analysis. A fairly decent picture can be put together based on these sources before sending one email or making one phone call. The next level is focused mostly on proprietary sources be they paid for (like Capital IQ, or The Information Pro) or developed by resourceful, applied effort.

If there are good public or semi-public sources we missed please leave us some feedback and we will make revisions to this from time to time.

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Analyst Character and Mindset

by Kris Tuttle on January 28, 2010

We saw a good post over at the research puzzle on “unbiased industriousness” and it illustrates some key facets of doing the job right as a research analyst, no matter where you work, or how you are paid.

Although we have always used different words to describe it the character and mindset of the analyst is probably more important than anything else in determining success, especially over the long term. It’s worth talking about these core ideas in more detail.

In addition to “industrious” we’d add intellectually curious, thoughtful, scientific and resourceful. The research job never stops and is pursued at all times at least in the mind if not with the telephone, the feet, the eye and ears, on the road in around your friends. It helps a great deal if you’re curious and also if you know the difference between “true” and “not necessarily true.” In an vastly expanding sea of information and data the ability to identify the pieces that are new and actually true is critical.

Great analysts need to be industrious because the information that is valuable and makes a difference in terms of knowing about a business and a stock is not easy to find. It takes a combination of thinking, probing, compiling, searching, sorting, and analysis to take a key question and get at the answer which nobody else knows.

And then it’s on to the next question, and the next one, and the next one… you get the idea. Eventually you are operating several moves ahead of everyone else in a particular area or company and in this way you make yourself indispensable, hard to replicate and hence valuable. Needless to say this is a very fun place to be. It’s riding the crest of a wave.

It’s hard to be totally unbiased. In fact many arguments between good analysts and investors are over what aspects of a story are the ones that will really drive the stock. In some ways only the market can ultimately settle these arguments. Less esoteric is the question of how you make money and does that drive your research agenda.

For any analyst the research agenda has to be the truth. Period. Companies can pay for research coverage via banking, analysts should be able to own the companies they follow as long as these things are transparent and made clear. This only works if the analyst is driven entirely by the desire to discover the truth and be right.

In an unbiased and objective approach there has to be consistency between how the analyst is paid, what they own and what they say and do. It doesn’t mean that if they put out a favorable report on company that they have to own it but it means they can’t be short it. It doesn’t mean that they have to provide research coverage for a company they own but it does mean they shouldn’t put out research coverage on it because they own it. On the banking side an analyst needs to make sure that the companies that come to them via banking or research fees are given fair coverage and treatment and not just a glowing report the glosses over important threats that may face the company in question.

In the end it comes to the point of never saying or writing something which you don’t believe is the best truth and being open to both sides of the argument. If there are companies and clients that don’t believe in pure objectivity and the truth and want a corrupted version of that for their own benefit, close your laptop and walk away!

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Information and Regulation FD

December 29, 2009

This is the first of what will be many posts on basic information gathering. Gathering information is the foundation of everything that a good sell-side analyst does. We’ll cover lots of pieces but without continual, effective information gathering there is no “flow” which is an important part of being good on the sell-side.
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The Return of Research Driven Capital Markets?

December 2, 2009

With the return of the IPO market the discussion of research and banking has started to come up again. For those who were not around for the last one there were a number of research-oriented investment banks like Hambrecht & Quist, Robertson Stephens, Alex Brown and SoundView Technology Group that led most of the [...]

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Options

December 1, 2009

Stock options are covered as part of the training and qualification process for equity analysts but most of the time they are ignored or unused which is a shame.
Part of the reason is that many people just don’t feel comfortable with options even after they are explained clearly. We know really smart people who [...]

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What's all this about "edge?"

October 29, 2009

The demise of Galleon has stirred up press coverage and much discussion over what the hedge fund industry often calls “edge.”  The basic idea is to find information that is not known by anyone else in the stock market.  Then all one needs to do buy and sell the right stocks and make huge profits [...]

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It's not the horse.

October 5, 2009

It’s still common  to run into professionals who can’t quite see the value of research.  My conviction on it is quite deep because it comes from applying it directly to stock market investments since the late 1980’s.  Yet not a week goes by where we don’t fine very smart, investment savvy people who find it [...]

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What is a research report?

June 9, 2009

We noticed a recent headline that NASDAQ OMX (NDAQ – $21) has selected Morning Star (MORN – $43) to provide “Equity Research Profile Reports” for all their listed stocks.  Today there are more than 3,600 companies listed and a large number, let’s say 1,000 have no “research coverage” today.
The “profile reports” are planned to be [...]

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What happened to research?

April 27, 2009

It’s a long story. The truth is it started fading while it was still growing in importance.  The first culprit was investment banking.  Stock trading commissions were something like 5c per share while investment banking deals offered $1 or even more per share.  No wonder people were distracted by the money.  Successful sell-side analysts not [...]

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They don't teach it in school.

January 9, 2009

In 1995 my dream came true.  After a career at IBM, and MBA in finance and a stint as a VP of institutional sales at a major Wall Street firm I was handed the keys to the kingdom – to be an equity analyst on the sell side.
Strangely enough the sector I was hired to [...]

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